The Promise of Prediction Contests

DOI10.1080/00031305.2014.937545MaRDI QIDQ5877679zbMATH OpenOpenAlexWikidataFDO

Authors Phillip E. Pfeifer, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Kenneth C. jun. Lichtendahl

Publication date 15 February 2023

Published in The American Statistician (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1080/00031305.2014.937545

zbMATH Keywords

forecast aggregationwisdom of crowdsforecasting contestspublic knowledge bias

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Statistics (62-XX)

Cites work

• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 5301288 (Why is no real title available?)
• Optimal Strategies for Second Guessers
• Optimal Strategies for Sports Betting Pools
• The promise of pick-the-winners contests for producing crowd probability forecasts
• The wisdom of competitive crowds

Cited in

(6)

• Small group forecasting using proportional-prize contests
• Extracting the collective wisdom in probabilistic judgments
• Learning to Forecast: The Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting Challenge
• Revisiting Francis Galton's forecasting competition
• The promise of pick-the-winners contests for producing crowd probability forecasts
• Predicting the Outcomes of Annual Sporting Contests

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