The Promise of Prediction Contests

DOI10.1080/00031305.2014.937545OpenAlexW2149994824WikidataQ58175296 ScholiaQ58175296MaRDI QIDQ5877679FDOQ5877679

Kenneth C. jun. Lichtendahl, Yael Grushka-Cockayne, Phillip E. Pfeifer

Publication date: 15 February 2023

Published in: The American Statistician (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL: https://doi.org/10.1080/00031305.2014.937545

zbMATH Keywords

forecast aggregationwisdom of crowdsforecasting contestspublic knowledge bias

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Statistics (62-XX)

Cites Work

• Title not available (Why is that?)
• The promise of pick-the-winners contests for producing crowd probability forecasts
• Optimal Strategies for Sports Betting Pools
• The Wisdom of Competitive Crowds
• Optimal Strategies for Second Guessers

Cited In (6)

• Revisiting Francis Galton's forecasting competition
• Small group forecasting using proportional-prize contests
• Learning to Forecast: The Probabilistic Time Series Forecasting Challenge
• The promise of pick-the-winners contests for producing crowd probability forecasts
• Predicting the Outcomes of Annual Sporting Contests
• Extracting the collective wisdom in probabilistic judgments

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