Spatial correlations in vote statistics: a diffusive field model for decision-making

DOI10.1140/EPJB/E2010-00151-1zbMATH Open1202.91279arXiv1003.2807OpenAlexW3104041876MaRDI QIDQ614608FDOQ614608

Authors: Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Christian Borghesi 

Publication date: 4 January 2011

Published in: The European Physical Journal B. Condensed Matter and Complex Systems (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We study the statistics of turnout rates and results of the French elections since 1992. We find that the distribution of turnout rates across towns is surprisingly stable over time. The spatial correlation of the turnout rates, or of the fraction of winning votes, is found to decay logarithmically with the distance between towns. Based on these empirical observations and on the analogy with a two-dimensional random diffusion equation, we propose that individual decisions can be rationalised in terms of an underlying "cultural" field, that locally biases the decision of the population of a given region, on top of an idiosyncratic, town-dependent field, with short range correlations. Using symmetry considerations and a set of plausible assumptions, we suggest that this cultural field obeys a random diffusion equation.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1003.2807

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Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Models of societies, social and urban evolution (91D10)

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• Empirical analysis and agent-based modeling of the Lithuanian parliamentary elections
• Compartmental voter model
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• Crises and collective socio-economic phenomena: simple models and challenges
• Approach to consensus in models of continuous-opinion dynamics: a study inspired by the physics of granular gases

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