Optional stopping with Bayes factors: a categorization and extension of folklore results, with an application to invariant situations
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Abstract: It is often claimed that Bayesian methods, in particular Bayes factor methods for hypothesis testing, can deal with optional stopping. We first give an overview, using elementary probability theory, of three different mathematical meanings that various authors give to this claim: (1) stopping rule independence, (2) posterior calibration and (3) (semi-) frequentist robustness to optional stopping. We then prove theorems to the effect that these claims do indeed hold in a general measure-theoretic setting. For claims of type (2) and (3), such results are new. By allowing for non-integrable measures based on improper priors, we obtain particularly strong results for the practically important case of models with nuisance parameters satisfying a group invariance (such as location or scale). We also discuss the practical relevance of (1)--(3), and conclude that whether Bayes factor methods actually perform well under optional stopping crucially depends on details of models, priors and the goal of the analysis.
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(28)- Bayes factors for peri-null hypotheses
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- Authors' reply to the discussion of `safe testing'
- Zihao Wen and David L. Dowe's contribution to the discussion of `safe testing' by Grünwald, de Heide, and Koolen
- Maozai Tian, Keming Yu and Jiangfeng Wang's contribution to the discussion of `safe testing' by Grünwald, de Heide, and Koolen
- Andrej Srakar's contribution to the discussion of `safe testing' by Grünwald, de Heide, and Koolen
- Judith ter Schure's contribution to the discussion of `safe testing' by Grünwald, de Heide, and Koolen
- Christian P. Robert and Joshua Bon's contribution to the discussion of `safe testing' by Grünwald, de Heide, and Koolen
- Stefano Rizzelli's contribution to the discussion of `safe testing' by Grünwald, de Heide, and Koolen
- Luigi Pace and Alessandra Salvan's contribution to the discussion of `safe testing' by Grünwald, de Heide, and Koolen
- Joris Mulder's contribution to the discussion of `safe testing' by Grünwald, de Heide, and Koolen
- Alexander Ly's contribution to the discussion of `safe testing' by Grünwald, de Heide, and Koolen
- Sander Greenland's contribution to the discussion of `safe testing' by Grünwald, de Heide, and Koolen
- Neil Dey, Ryan Martin, and Jonathan P. Williams' contribution to the discussion of `safe testing' by Grünwald, de Heide, and Koolen
- Christine P. Chai's contribution to the discussion of `safe testing' by Grünwald, de Heide, and Koolen
- Marco Cattaneo's contribution to the discussion of ``Safe testing by Grünwald, de Heide, and Koolen
- Joshua bon and christian P. Robert's contribution to the discussion of `safe testing' by Grünwald, de Heide, and Koolen
- Vladimir Vovk's contribution to the discussion of `safe testing' by Grünwald, de Heide, and Koolen
- Wenkai Xu's contribution to the discussion of `safe testing' by Grünwald, de Heide and Koolen
- Christian Hennig's contribution to the discussion of `safe testing' by Grünwald, de Heide, and Koolen
- Glenn Shafer's contribution to the discussion of `safe testing' by Grünwald, de Heide, and Koolen
- Thorsten Dickhaus's contribution to the discussion of `safe testing' by Grünwald, de Heide, and Koolen
- Martin larsson, aaditya ramdas, and johannes Ruf's contribution to the discussion of `safe testing' by Grünwald, de heide, and koolen
- David R. Bickel's contribution to the discussion of `safe testing' by Grünwald, de Heide, and Koolen
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