Controlling the flexibility of non-Gaussian processes through shrinkage priors

DOI10.1214/22-BA1342arXiv2203.05510OpenAlexW4313003093MaRDI QIDQ6203348FDOQ6203348

Rafael Cabral, David Bolin, Håvard Rue

Publication date: 27 February 2024

Published in: Bayesian Analysis (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: The normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) and generalized asymmetric Laplace (GAL) distributions can be seen as skewed and semi-heavy-tailed extensions of the Gaussian distribution. Models driven by these more flexible noise distributions are then regarded as flexible extensions of simpler Gaussian models. Inferential procedures tend to overestimate the degree of non-Gaussianity in the data and therefore we propose controlling the flexibility of these non-Gaussian models by adding sensible priors in the inferential framework that contract the model towards Gaussianity. In our venture to derive sensible priors, we also propose a new intuitive parameterization of the non-Gaussian models and discuss how to implement them efficiently in $Stan$. The methods are derived for a generic class of non-Gaussian models that include spatial Mat'ern fields, autoregressive models for time series, and simultaneous autoregressive models for aerial data. The results are illustrated with a simulation study and geostatistics application, where priors that penalize model complexity were shown to lead to more robust estimation and give preference to the Gaussian model, while at the same time allowing for non-Gaussianity if there is sufficient evidence in the data.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2203.05510

zbMATH Keywords

Bayesiannon-GaussianSPDEpriorsnormal inverse Gaussianpenalized complexityMatérn covariancegeneralized asymmetric Laplace

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Random fields; image analysis (62M40) Inference from stochastic processes and prediction (62M20)

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