Estimating within-household contact networks from egocentric data

DOI10.1214/11-AOAS474zbMATH Open1228.62146arXiv1111.5993OpenAlexW1981274325WikidataQ34199593 ScholiaQ34199593MaRDI QIDQ652344FDOQ652344

Authors: Gail E. Potter, Mark S. Handcock, M. Elizabeth Halloran, Ira M. jun. Longini 

Publication date: 14 December 2011

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Acute respiratory diseases are transmitted over networks of social contacts. Large-scale simulation models are used to predict epidemic dynamics and evaluate the impact of various interventions, but the contact behavior in these models is based on simplistic and strong assumptions which are not informed by survey data. These assumptions are also used for estimating transmission measures such as the basic reproductive number and secondary attack rates. Development of methodology to infer contact networks from survey data could improve these models and estimation methods. We contribute to this area by developing a model of within-household social contacts and using it to analyze the Belgian POLYMOD data set, which contains detailed diaries of social contacts in a 24-hour period. We model dependency in contact behavior through a latent variable indicating which household members are at home. We estimate age-specific probabilities of being at home and age-specific probabilities of contact conditional on two members being at home. Our results differ from the standard random mixing assumption. In addition, we find that the probability that all members contact each other on a given day is fairly low: 0.49 for households with two 0--5 year olds and two 19--35 year olds, and 0.36 for households with two 12--18 year olds and two 36+ year olds. We find higher contact rates in households with 2--3 members, helping explain the higher influenza secondary attack rates found in households of this size.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1111.5993

Recommendations

• Estimating within-school contact networks to understand influenza transmission
• Efficient estimation of age-specific social contact rates between men and women
• Bayesian inference for contact networks given epidemic data
• Fast inference for network models of infectious disease spread
• Using empirical social contact data to model person to person infectious disease transmission: An illustration for varicella

zbMATH Keywords

graphslatent variablessocial networksepidemic modelcontact networks

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Medical epidemiology (92C60) Applications of statistics (62P99) Social networks; opinion dynamics (91D30)

Cites Work

• Ecological models and data in R
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• A Family of Variable-Metric Methods Derived by Variational Means
• The Convergence of a Class of Double-rank Minimization Algorithms
• A new approach to variable metric algorithms
• Conditioning of Quasi-Newton Methods for Function Minimization
• The Large-Sample Distribution of the Likelihood Ratio for Testing Composite Hypotheses
• Modeling social networks from sampled data
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Bayesian Inference for Stochastic Epidemics in Populations with Random Social Structure
• Bayesian Inference for Stochastic Multitype Epidemics in Structured Populations Via Random Graphs
• Estimating within-household contact networks from egocentric data
• Using empirical social contact data to model person to person infectious disease transmission: An illustration for varicella
• A data-augmentation method for infectious disease incidence data from close contact groups

Cited In (6)

• Efficient estimation of age-specific social contact rates between men and women
• Estimating within-school contact networks to understand influenza transmission
• Individual-level modeling of the spread of influenza within households
• Estimating the within-household infection rate in emerging SIR epidemics among a community of households
• House exchange and residential segregation in networks
• Estimating within-household contact networks from egocentric data

Uses Software

• R
• statnet
• emdbook
• bootstrap

This page was built for publication: Estimating within-household contact networks from egocentric data

Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q652344)