Reconstruction of disease transmission rates: applications to measles, dengue, and influenza

DOI10.1016/J.JTBI.2016.04.017zbMATH Open1343.92488arXiv1408.0640OpenAlexW2245291847WikidataQ30387219 ScholiaQ30387219MaRDI QIDQ738642FDOQ738642

Authors: Alexander Lange 

Publication date: 5 September 2016

Published in: Journal of Theoretical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Transmission rates are key in understanding the spread of infectious diseases. Using the framework of compartmental models, we introduce a simple method that enables us to reconstruct time series of transmission rates directly from incidence or disease-related mortality data. The reconstruction exploits differential equations, which model the time evolution of infective stages and strains. Being sensitive to initial values, the method produces asymptotically correct solutions. The computations are fast, with time complexity being quadratic. We apply the reconstruction to data of measles (England and Wales, 1948-67), dengue (Thailand, 1982-99), and influenza (U.S., 1910-27). The Measles example offers comparison with earlier work. Here we re-investigate reporting corrections, include and exclude demographic information. The dengue example deals with the failure of vector-control measures in reducing dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) in Thailand. Two competing mechanisms have been held responsible: strain interaction and demographic transitions. Our reconstruction reveals that both explanations are possible, showing that the increase in DHF cases is consistent with decreasing transmission rates resulting from reduced vector counts. The flu example focuses on the 1918/19 pandemic, examining the transmission rate evolution for an invading strain. Our analysis indicates that the pandemic strain could have circulated in the population for many months before the pandemic was initiated by an event of highly increased transmission.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1408.0640

Recommendations

• Studying the recovery procedure for the time-dependent transmission rate(s) in epidemic models
• Extracting the time-dependent transmission rate from infection data via solution of an inverse ODE problem
• Forecasting epidemics through nonparametric estimation of time-dependent transmission rates using the SEIR model
• Reconstructing susceptible and recruitment dynamics from measles epidemic data
• Parameter identification in epidemic models

zbMATH Keywords

disease transmissiondifferential equation modelsinfectious disease modeling

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30)

Cites Work

• On the definition and the computation of the basic reproduction ratio \(R_ 0\) in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations
• Dynamical behavior of epidemiological models with nonlinear incidence rates
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Time Series Modelling of Childhood Diseases: A Dynamical Systems Approach
• Extracting the time-dependent transmission rate from infection data via solution of an inverse ODE problem
• Studying the recovery procedure for the time-dependent transmission rate(s) in epidemic models
• Parameter estimation in epidemic models: simplified formulas
• Parameter identification in epidemic models
• Discrete Time Modelling of Disease Incidence Time Series by Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods
• Deterministic and stochastic models for the seasonal variability of measles transmission
• The inverse method for a childhood infectious disease model with its application to pre-vaccination and post-vaccination measles data

Cited In (10)

• Reconstructing susceptible and recruitment dynamics from measles epidemic data
• Forecasting epidemics through nonparametric estimation of time-dependent transmission rates using the SEIR model
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• The parameter identification problem for SIR epidemic models: identifying unreported cases
• Extracting the time-dependent transmission rate from infection data via solution of an inverse ODE problem
• Estimating the Transmission Rate for a Highly Infectious Disease
• Reconstruction of the seasonally varying contact rate for measles
• A mathematical framework for predicting lifestyles of viral pathogens
• Studying the recovery procedure for the time-dependent transmission rate(s) in epidemic models
• A Network‐based Analysis of the 1861 Hagelloch Measles Data

Uses Software

• Mathematica

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