Extracting the time-dependent transmission rate from infection data via solution of an inverse ODE problem

DOI10.1080/17513758.2011.645510zbMATH Open1447.92470arXiv0907.3529OpenAlexW1995129053WikidataQ34371024 ScholiaQ34371024MaRDI QIDQ3304476FDOQ3304476

Authors: Mark Pollicott, Hao Wang, Howard Weiss 

Publication date: 3 August 2020

Published in: Journal of Biological Dynamics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: The transmission rate of many acute infectious diseases varies significantly in time, but the underlying mechanisms are usually uncertain. They may include seasonal changes in the environment, contact rate, immune system response, etc. The transmission rate has been thought difficult to measure directly. We present a new algorithm to compute the time-dependent transmission rate directly from prevalence data, which makes no assumptions about the number of susceptibles or vital rates. The algorithm follows our complete and explicit solution of a mathematical inverse problem for SIR-type transmission models. We prove that almost any infection profile can be perfectly fitted by an SIR model with variable transmission rate. This clearly shows a serious danger of over-fitting such transmission models. We illustrate the algorithm with historic UK measles data and our observations support the common belief that measles transmission was predominantly driven by school contacts.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/0907.3529

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zbMATH Keywords

inverse problemepidemiologyFourier analysisperiodicitymeaslesoverfittingtime-dependent transmission rateextraction algorithmmodulus of Fourier transform

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Inverse problems involving ordinary differential equations (34A55)

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Cited In (28)

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• The number of polynomial solutions of polynomial Riccati equations
• The inverse method for a childhood infectious disease model with its application to pre-vaccination and post-vaccination measles data
• Inference on the structure of gene regulatory networks
• Mechanistic modelling of multiple waves in an influenza epidemic or pandemic
• Transmission dynamics of acute respiratory diseases in a population structured by age
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• From Abel's differential equations to Hilbert's 16th problem
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• A hybrid approach to study and forecast climate-sensitive norovirus infections in the USA
• Statistical inference and neural network training based on stochastic difference model for air pollution and associated disease transmission
• Estimating time-dependent transmission rate of avian influenza via stable numerical algorithm
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• Extinction and Quasi-Stationarity for Discrete-Time, Endemic SIS and SIR Models
• Bayesian nonparametrics for stochastic epidemic models
• On the Abel differential equations of third kind
• Delay epidemic models determined by latency, infection, and immunity duration
• Discrete inverse method for extracting disease transmission rates from accessible infection data

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