A hypothesis-free bridging of disease dynamics and non-pharmaceutical policies
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Publication:2127658
Abstract: Accurate prediction of the number of daily or weekly confirmed cases of COVID-19 is critical to the control of the pandemic. Existing mechanistic models nicely capture the disease dynamics. However, to forecast the future, they require the transmission rate to be known, limiting their prediction power. Typically, a hypothesis is made on the form of the transmission rate with respect to time. Yet the real form is too complex to be mechanistically modeled due to the unknown dynamics of many influential factors. We tackle this problem by using a hypothesis-free machine-learning algorithm to estimate the transmission rate from data on non-pharmaceutical policies, and in turn forecast the confirmed cases using a mechanistic disease model. More specifically, we build a hybrid model consisting of a mechanistic ordinary differential equation (ODE) model and a generalized boosting model (GBM). To calibrate the parameters, we develop an "inverse method" that obtains the transmission rate inversely in time from the other variables in the ODE model and then feed it into the GBM to connect with the policy data. The resulting model forecasted the number of daily confirmed cases up to 35 days in the future in the United States with an averaged mean absolute percentage error of 27%. Being partly data-driven, the method is more accurate than typical mechanistic models and meanwhile more intuitive, and possibly reliable, than purely data-based machine learning models. Moreover, it can identify the most informative predictive variables, which can be helpful in designing improved forecasters as well as informing policymakers.
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Cited in
(10)- From policy to prediction: forecasting COVID-19 dynamics under imperfect vaccination
- Dynamics identification and forecasting of COVID-19 by switching Kalman filters
- Managing the endogenous risk of disease outbreaks with non-constant background risk
- Alternative SIAR models for infectious diseases and applications in the study of non-compliance
- Spatial heterogeneity analysis for the transmission of syphilis disease in China via a data-validated reaction-diffusion model
- Climate-dependent effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 mitigation
- Assessing potential insights of an imperfect testing strategy: parameter estimation and practical identifiability using early COVID-19 data in India
- A hybrid approach to study and forecast climate-sensitive norovirus infections in the USA
- Modelling and predicting the spread of COVID-19 cases depending on restriction policy based on mined recommendation rules
- Discrete inverse method for extracting disease transmission rates from accessible infection data
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