Shafer on conditional probability

DOI10.1007/BF00249261MaRDI QIDQ794046zbMATH OpenFDO

Authors Bas C. van Fraassen

Publication date 1983

Published in Journal of Philosophical Logic (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00249261

zbMATH Keywords

rule of conditioningsubjective probability

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Philosophical and critical aspects of logic and foundations (03A05) Axioms; other general questions in probability (60A05)

Review text

In this short discussion note of \textit{G. Shafer's} paper (see the foregoing review; Zbl 0539.60004) the present author shows that some kind of paradox may be derived when one of Shafer's assumptions concerning the agent's beliefs is given up. The issue is whether someone can ever believe that he will fully believe (or take as evidence) a proposition that is actually false. Doxastic logic tells us that whoever fully believes that p ipso facto believes that this belief is not mistaken, thus - with respect to someone's present beliefs - the believer himself cannot think it possible that he is mistaken. On the other hand, we all know that humans are not infallible; thus we should perhaps reasonably assume that in the future we will fully believe some proposition p which is (or will turn out) actually (to be) false. The author shows that if indeed the agent assigns a positive probability to his future becoming sure of some false proposition E, then a Dutch book may be construed against him.

Recommendations

• Full Belief and Probability: Comments on Van Fraassen
• The vulnerability of the transferable belief model to Dutch books
• Probabilité conditionnelle et certitude
• A characterization of probability-based dichotomous belief revision
• On the significance of conditional probabilities

Cites work

• A subjective interpretation of conditional probability
• Bayes's two arguments for the rule of conditioning
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3516445 (Why is no real title available?)
• Logic and the philosophy of science

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