Probabilistic wind speed forecasting on a grid based on ensemble model output statistics
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Publication:902907
DOI10.1214/15-AOAS843zbMATH Open1454.62458arXiv1511.02001MaRDI QIDQ902907FDOQ902907
Authors: M. Scheuerer, David Möller 
Publication date: 4 January 2016
Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: Probabilistic forecasts of wind speed are important for a wide range of applications, ranging from operational decision making in connection with wind power generation to storm warnings, ship routing and aviation. We present a statistical method that provides locally calibrated, probabilistic wind speed forecasts at any desired place within the forecast domain based on the output of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. Three approaches for wind speed post-processing are proposed, which use either truncated normal, gamma or truncated logistic distributions to make probabilistic predictions about future observations conditional on the forecasts of an ensemble prediction system (EPS). In order to provide probabilistic forecasts on a grid, predictive distributions that were calibrated with local wind speed observations need to be interpolated. We study several interpolation schemes that combine geostatistical methods with local information on annual mean wind speeds, and evaluate the proposed methodology with surface wind speed forecasts over Germany from the COSMO-DE (Consortium for Small-scale Modelling) ensemble prediction system.
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1511.02001
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Gaussian processcontinuous ranked probability scoredensity forecastnumerical weather predictionensemble prediction system
Inference from stochastic processes and prediction (62M20) Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics (62P12) Geostatistics (86A32)
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Cited In (15)
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- Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center
- Reducing storage of global wind ensembles with stochastic generators
- Censored and shifted gamma distribution based EMOS model for probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting
- Stochastic simulation of predictive space-time scenarios of wind speed using observations and physical model outputs
- Catching uncertainty of wind: a blend of sieve bootstrap and regime switching models for probabilistic short-term forecasting of wind speed
- A spliced gamma-generalized Pareto model for short-term extreme wind speed probabilistic forecasting
- Statistical treatment of inverse problems constrained by differential equations-based models with stochastic terms
- Calibrated Probabilistic Mesoscale Weather Field Forecasting
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