Probabilistic wind speed forecasting on a grid based on ensemble model output statistics

DOI10.1214/15-AOAS843zbMath1454.62458arXiv1511.02001MaRDI QIDQ902907

David Möller, Michael Scheuerer

Publication date: 4 January 2016

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1511.02001

zbMATH Keywords

Gaussian processnumerical weather predictiondensity forecastcontinuous ranked probability scoreensemble prediction system

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Inference from stochastic processes and prediction (62M20) Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics (62P12) Geostatistics (86A32)

Related Items (4)

Stochastic simulation of predictive space-time scenarios of wind speed using observations and physical model outputs ⋮ Censored and shifted gamma distribution based EMOS model for probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasting ⋮ Statistical Treatment of Inverse Problems Constrained by Differential Equations-Based Models with Stochastic Terms ⋮ Scoring predictions at extreme quantiles

Uses Software

• LBFGS-B

Cites Work

• Making and Evaluating Point Forecasts
• Interpolation of spatial data – A stochastic or a deterministic problem?
• Geostatistics
• An Analysis of Some Properties of Alternative Measures of Income Inequality Based on the Gamma Distribution Function
• A Limited Memory Algorithm for Bound Constrained Optimization
• Using Conditional Kernel Density Estimation for Wind Power Density Forecasting
• Strictly Proper Scoring Rules, Prediction, and Estimation
• Probabilistic Forecasts, Calibration and Sharpness
• Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting at the Stateline Wind Energy Center
• Wind energy: forecasting challenges for its operational management

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