A Bayesian approach to the evaluation of risk-based microbiological criteria for \textit{campylobacter} in broiler meat

DOI10.1214/15-AOAS845MaRDI QIDQ902919zbMATH OpenFDO

Authors Jukka Ranta, Roland Lindqvist, Ingrid Hansson, Pirkko Tuominen, Maarten Nauta

Publication date 4 January 2016

Published in The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1511.01654, https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoas/1446488745

zbMATH Keywords

2D Monte CarloBayesian modelingcampylobacterevidence synthesisfood safetyhierarchical modelsopenbugsquantitative microbiological risk assessmentuncertainty

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10)

Abstract: Shifting from traditional hazard-based food safety management toward risk-based management requires statistical methods for evaluating intermediate targets in food production, such as microbiological criteria (MC), in terms of their effects on human risk of illness. A fully risk-based evaluation of MC involves several uncertainties that are related to both the underlying Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) model and the production-specific sample data on the prevalence and concentrations of microbes in production batches. We used Bayesian modeling for statistical inference and evidence synthesis of two sample data sets. Thus, parameter uncertainty was represented by a joint posterior distribution, which we then used to predict the risk and to evaluate the criteria for acceptance of production batches. We also applied the Bayesian model to compare alternative criteria, accounting for the statistical uncertainty of parameters, conditional on the data sets. Comparison of the posterior mean relative risk, $E(mathitRR|mathrmdata)=E(P(mathrmillness|mathrmcriterionismet)/P(mathrmillness)|mathrmdata)$, and relative posterior risk, $mathitRPR=P(mathrmillness|mathrmdata,criterionismet)/P(mathrmillness|mathrmdata)$, showed very similar results, but computing is more efficient for RPR. Based on the sample data, together with the QMRA model, one could achieve a relative risk of 0.4 by insisting that the default criterion be fulfilled for acceptance of each batch.

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Cites work

• A Bayesian approach to the evaluation of risk-based microbiological criteria for \textit{campylobacter} in broiler meat
• Bayesian risk assessment for salmonella in egg laying flocks under zero apparent prevalence and dynamic test sensitivity
• Don't know, can't know: embracing deeper uncertainties when analysing risks
• Prior distributions for variance parameters in hierarchical models (Comment on article by Browne and Draper)
• The BUGS book. A practical introduction to Bayesian analysis

Cited in

(3)

• Bayesian risk assessment for salmonella in egg laying flocks under zero apparent prevalence and dynamic test sensitivity
• A Bayesian approach to the evaluation of risk-based microbiological criteria for \textit{campylobacter} in broiler meat
• Quantitative microbial risk assessment: uncertainty and measures of central tendency for skewed distributions

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