Generation interval contraction and epidemic data analysis

DOI10.1016/J.MBS.2008.02.007zbMATH Open1135.92031arXiv0706.2024OpenAlexW2157038088WikidataQ31151751 ScholiaQ31151751MaRDI QIDQ927140FDOQ927140

Authors: Eben Kenah, Marc Lipsitch, James Robins 

Publication date: 22 May 2008

Published in: Mathematical Biosciences (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: The generation interval is the time between the infection time of an infected person and the infection time of his or her infector. Probability density functions for generation intervals have been an important input for epidemic models and epidemic data analysis. In this paper, we specify a general stochastic SIR epidemic model and prove that the mean generation interval decreases when susceptible persons are at risk of infectious contact from multiple sources. The intuition behind this is that when a susceptible person has multiple potential infectors, there is a ``race to infect him or her in which only the first infectious contact leads to infection. In an epidemic, the mean generation interval contracts as the prevalence of infection increases. We call this global competition among potential infectors. When there is rapid transmission within clusters of contacts, generation interval contraction can be caused by a high local prevalence of infection even when the global prevalence is low. We call this local competition among potential infectors. Using simulations, we illustrate both types of competition. Finally, we show that hazards of infectious contact can be used instead of generation intervals to estimate the time course of the effective reproductive number in an epidemic. This approach leads naturally to partial likelihoods for epidemic data that are very similar to those that arise in survival analysis, opening a promising avenue of methodological research in infectious disease epidemiology.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/0706.2024

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zbMATH Keywords

survival analysisorder statisticsstochastic epidemic modelsSIR modelsgeneration intervalsserial intervals

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Epidemiology (92D30) Probabilistic models, generic numerical methods in probability and statistics (65C20) Special processes (60K99)

Cites Work

• Network-based analysis of stochastic SIR epidemic models with random and proportionate mixing
• A note on generation times in epidemic models
• Title not available (Why is that?)

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• Determination of epidemic parameters from early phase fatality data: A case study of the 2009 A (H1N1) pandemic in Europe
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• Reproductive numbers, epidemic spread and control in a community of households
• Some model based considerations on observing generation times for communicable diseases
• Real-time growth rate for general stochastic SIR epidemics on unclustered networks
• Shrinkage in serial intervals across transmission generations of COVID-19
• When Do Epidemics End? Scientific Insights from Mathematical Modelling Studies
• UNIFORM INFERENCE IN A GENERALIZED INTERVAL ARITHMETIC CENTER AND RANGE LINEAR MODEL
• Modeling the COVID-19 pandemic: a primer and overview of mathematical epidemiology
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