Extinction rates for fluctuation-induced metastabilities: a real-space WKB approach

DOI10.1007/S10955-007-9312-2zbMATH Open1118.91074arXivq-bio/0611049OpenAlexW2031391358MaRDI QIDQ996849FDOQ996849

Authors: David A. Kessler, Nadav M. Shnerb 

Publication date: 19 July 2007

Published in: Journal of Statistical Physics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: The extinction of a single species due to demographic stochasticity is analyzed. The discrete nature of the individual agents and the Poissonian noise related to the birth-death processes result in local extinction of a metastable population, as the system hits the absorbing state. The Fokker-Planck formulation of that problem fails to capture the statistics of large deviations from the metastable state, while approximations appropriate close to the absorbing state become, in general, invalid as the population becomes large. To connect these two regimes, a master equation based on a real space WKB method is presented, and is shown to yield an excellent approximation for the decay rate and the extreme events statistics all the way down to the absorbing state. The details of the underlying microscopic process, smeared out in a mean field treatment, are shown to be crucial for an exact determination of the extinction exponent. This general scheme is shown to reproduce the known results in the field, to yield new corollaries and to fit quite precisely the numerical solutions. Moreover it allows for systematic improvement via a series expansion where the small parameter is the inverse of the number of individuals in the metastable state.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/q-bio/0611049

Recommendations

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Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Mathematical geography and demography (91D20) Semiclassical techniques, including WKB and Maslov methods applied to problems in quantum theory (81Q20) Singular perturbation problems for ordinary differential equations in the complex domain (complex WKB, turning points, steepest descent) (34M60)

Cites Work

• Stochastic processes in physics and chemistry.
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Extinction Times for Birth-Death Processes: Exact Results, Continuum Asymptotics, and the Failure of the Fokker--Planck Approximation

Cited In (24)

• Computing the optimal path in stochastic dynamical systems
• A Primer on Noise-Induced Transitions in Applied Dynamical Systems
• Large fluctuations and fixation in evolutionary games
• Novel exponents control the quasi-deterministic limit of the extinction transition
• Controlling mean exit time of stochastic dynamical systems based on quasipotential and machine learning
• Epidemic Size in the SIS Model of Endemic Infections
• On extinction time of a generalized endemic chain-binomial model
• Seasonal forcing in stochastic epidemiology models
• Epidemic extinction in a simplicial susceptible-infected-susceptible model
• Discreteness induced extinction
• Large deviation induced phase switch in an inertial majority-vote model
• Species coexistence in a neutral dynamics with environmental noise
• Analysis and control of pre-extinction dynamics in stochastic populations
• Applications of WKB and Fokker-Planck methods in analyzing population extinction driven by weak demographic fluctuations
• Spatial effect on stochastic dynamics of bistable evolutionary games
• Modeling epidemics dynamics on heterogenous networks
• Immigration-induced phase transition in a regulated multispecies birth-death process
• WKB theory of large deviations in stochastic populations
• Processes governing species richness in communities exposed to temporal environmental stochasticity: a review and synthesis of modelling approaches
• Diffusion approximations in population genetics and the rate of Muller's ratchet
• First passage times and minimum actions for a stochastic minimal bistable system
• Rare events in stochastic populations under bursty reproduction
• Fixation and absorption in a fluctuating environment
• Sharp asymptotics for the quasi-stationary distribution of birth-and-death processes

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