Simpler Probabilistic Population Forecasts: Making Scenarios Work

DOI10.1111/J.1751-5823.2004.TB00226.XMaRDI QIDQ4832081zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Joshua R. Goldstein

Publication date 3 January 2005

Published in International Statistical Review (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1751-5823.2004.tb00226.x

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Time series, auto-correlation, regression, etc. in statistics (GARCH) (62M10) Inference from stochastic processes and prediction (62M20) Applications of statistics to social sciences (62P25) Mathematical geography and demography (91D20)

Recommendations

• Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting
• Random Scenario Forecasts Versus Stochastic Forecasts
• Assumptions on Fertility in Stochastic Population Forecasts*
• Simplicity and complexity in extrapolatwe population forecasting models
• Accounting for uncertainty about past values in probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for most countries

Cites work

• Modeling and forecasting U.S. mortality. (With discussion)

Cited in

(12)

• Accounting for uncertainty about past values in probabilistic projections of the total fertility rate for most countries
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 4062649 (Why is no real title available?)
• Population forecasting: Do simple models outperform complex models?
• Simplicity and complexity in extrapolatwe population forecasting models
• Toward a New Model for Probabilistic Household Forecasts
• Assumptions on Fertility in Stochastic Population Forecasts*
• Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting
• Conditional Probabilistic Population Projections: An Application to Climate Change
• Random Scenario Forecasts Versus Stochastic Forecasts
• Developing Official Stochastic Population Forecasts at the US Census Bureau
• Uncertainty quantification of world population growth: a self-similar PDF model
• Population forecasting and dynamic games against nature

This page was built for publication: Simpler Probabilistic Population Forecasts: Making Scenarios Work

Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q4832081)