THE DETERMINISTIC MODEL OF A SIMPLE EPIDEMIC FOR MORE THAN ONE COMMUNITY

A deterministic model of a simple epidemic for several related communities is considered. Denoting by \(y_i(t)\) the number of susceptibles in the \(i\)-th community \(C_i\) at time \(t\) and by \(n_i\) the total size of \(C_i\) \((i=1, \ldots, m)\), the authors derive a system of differential equations \[ \frac{dy_i}{dt} = -y_i \left\{\alpha_i\left(n_i - y_i\right)+\sum_{j \neq i} \beta_{i j}\left(n_{j}-y_{j}\right)\right\} \quad(i=1, \ldots, m) \] where the constants \( \alpha_i\) and \( \beta_{i j}\) designate the internal infection rate in \(C_i\) and the infection rate between \( C_{i} \) and \( C_{j} \), respectively. Under the simplifying assumption that \( n_i=n\), \(\alpha_i = \alpha\) and \(\beta_{i j}=\alpha \gamma \), the system is solved in a parametric form by quadrature. A special case in which the number of communities reduces essentially to two, i. e. \( m=2 \), is discussed in detail. An illustration is made by a numerical table and a graph.

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