The predictability problem in systems with an uncertainty in the evolution law

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Abstract: The problem of error growth due to the incomplete knowledge of the evolution law which rules the dynamics of a given physical system is addressed. Major interest is devoted to the analysis of error amplification in systems with many characteristic times and scales. The importance of a proper parameterization of fast scales in systems with many strongly interacting degrees of freedom is highlighted and its consequences for the modelization of geophysical systems are discussed.












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