Dynamic Bayesian influenza forecasting in the United States with hierarchical discrepancy (with discussion)

DOI10.1214/18-BA1117zbMath1416.62612arXiv1708.09481MaRDI QIDQ1738132

Sara Y. Del Valle, Reid Priedhorsky, James Gattiker, Dave Osthus

Publication date: 29 March 2019

Published in: Bayesian Analysis (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1708.09481

zbMATH Keywords

hierarchical modeling; discrepancy; influenza; probabilistic forecasting

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

62M20: Inference from stochastic processes and prediction

62P10: Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis

92C60: Medical epidemiology

Related Items

Dealing with Measurement Uncertainties as Nuisance Parameters in Bayesian Model Calibration, Simultaneous transformation and rounding (STAR) models for integer-valued data, Dynamic Bayesian influenza forecasting in the United States with hierarchical discrepancy (with discussion)

Uses Software

• R
• CODA
• rjags
• JAGS
• GitHub
• FRED

Cites Work

• A compartmental model for meningitis: separating transmission from climate effects on disease incidence
• Pandemic simulation of antivirals+school closures: buying time until strain-specific vaccine is available
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• Dynamic Bayesian influenza forecasting in the United States with hierarchical discrepancy (with discussion)
• Parameter estimation and uncertainty quantification for an epidemic model
• Forecasting seasonal influenza with a state-space SIR model
• Bayesian Calibration of Computer Models
• Learning about physical parameters: the importance of model discrepancy
• Computer Model Calibration Using High-Dimensional Output
• Tracking Epidemics With Google Flu Trends Data and a State-Space SEIR Model
• Dynamic Bayesian Forecasting of Presidential Elections in the States
• Gaussian process emulators for spatial individual‐level models of infectious disease