A queueing system with an SIR-type infection

DOI10.1017/S0269964823000256MaRDI QIDQ6963886zbMATH OpenFDO

Authors Claude Lefèvre, Matthieu Simon

Publication date 7 July 2025

Published in Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1017/S0269964823000256

zbMATH Keywords

branching environmentfinal epidemic sizemartingale constructionsSIR infectious diseasestopping time theorems

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Stopping times; optimal stopping problems; gambling theory (60G40) Applications of queueing theory (congestion, allocation, storage, traffic, etc.) (60K30) Epidemiology (92D30)

Review text

The paper develops a stochastic SIR-type epidemic model involving two connected populations: a small local population and a larger external one. External infectives enter the local population temporarily and interact with susceptibles, with entry and residence modeled by a general Markovian queueing system. A family of martingales is constructed for the joint process, enabling analysis of the final epidemic size. Both exact distributional formulas and moment relations are derived. The paper also investigates special cases involving branching processes and limited access, showing how external infection dynamics influence internal outbreaks. Some numerical examples are provided to illustrate the theoretical prediction.

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