A queueing system with an SIR-type infection (Q6963886)
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scientific article; zbMATH DE number 8059809
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| English | A queueing system with an SIR-type infection |
scientific article; zbMATH DE number 8059809 |
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A queueing system with an SIR-type infection (English)
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7 July 2025
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The paper develops a stochastic SIR-type epidemic model involving two connected populations: a small local population and a larger external one. External infectives enter the local population temporarily and interact with susceptibles, with entry and residence modeled by a general Markovian queueing system. A family of martingales is constructed for the joint process, enabling analysis of the final epidemic size. Both exact distributional formulas and moment relations are derived. The paper also investigates special cases involving branching processes and limited access, showing how external infection dynamics influence internal outbreaks. Some numerical examples are provided to illustrate the theoretical prediction.
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branching environment
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final epidemic size
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martingale constructions
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SIR infectious disease
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stopping time theorems
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