Equilibrium and extinction in stochastic population dynamics

DOI10.1007/BF02481767MaRDI QIDQ1099808zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors H. Roozen

Publication date 1987

Published in Bulletin of Mathematical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1007/bf02481767

zbMATH Keywords

confidence regionsdeterministic systemdiffusion approximationExit pointsexit timesextinction timeforward equationGaussian distributiongeneralized Lotka-Volterra systeminteracting biological populationsnumerical solution of ray equationsquasi-stationary stateray methodsimulationssmall parameter asymptoticsStability conditionsstable fixed pointstationary densitystochastic population systemsstochastic stabilitystochastic two-population model

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of Brownian motions and diffusion theory (population genetics, absorption problems, etc.) (60J70) Applications of branching processes (60J85) Computational methods for problems pertaining to biology (92-08) Population dynamics (general) (92D25)

Review text

The paper describes properties of stochastic population systems defined by a Markovian birth and death process. For large population sizes the system can be well approximated by a diffusion process. The corresponding forward equation contains a small parameter and can be asymptotically solved in the quasi-stationary state by the ray method. The deterministic system associated to the stochastic one is assumed to have a stable fixed point in the interior of the state space. In the first part of the paper a local analysis near this equilibrium is given and confidence regions are estimated by a new method of solving numerically the ray equations. The concept of extinction time which is closely related to the notion of stochastic stability is discussed. In the second part the theory is applied to a stochastic two-population model associated to a generalized Lotka-Volterra system. Stability conditions are derived and the parameters of the Gaussian distribution approximating the stationary density are calculated. Contours of confidence regions and rays are constructed by the numerical method developed by the author. Exit points and exit times are compared with simulations of the original birth and death process.

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Cited in

(22)

• The accuracy of Bartlett's small-fluctuation approximation for stochastic-difference-equation population models
• Asymptotic analysis of nonlinear systems with small stochastic perturbations
• Stochastic three species systems
• Does increased stochasticity speed up extinction?
• Stochastic sensitivity analysis of noise-induced extinction in the Ricker model with delay and Allee effect
• Chance of extinction of populations in food chain model under demographic stochasticity
• Analysis and control of pre-extinction dynamics in stochastic populations
• Applications of WKB and Fokker-Planck methods in analyzing population extinction driven by weak demographic fluctuations
• Persistence and extinction for stochastic ecological models with internal and external variables
• Blowing-up of deterministic fixed points in stochastic population dynamics
• On the establishment, persistence, and inevitable extinction of populations
• Markovian paths to extinction
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 5635346 (Why is no real title available?)
• Stochastic Equilibria in Nonhomogeneous Markov Population Replacement Processes
• Stochastic population models on a bounded domain: exit probabilities and persistence
• WKB theory of large deviations in stochastic populations
• Persistence and Equilibria of Branching Populations with Exponential Intensity
• Extinction and permanence in a stochastic non-autonomous population system
• Family of equilibria in a population kinetics model and its collapse
• Extinction times and size of the surviving species in a two-species competition process
• On the number of births and deaths during an extinction cycle, and the survival of a certain individual in a competition process
• Population extinction and quasi-stationary behavior in stochastic density-dependent structured models

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