Estimating uncertainties using judgmental forecasts with expert heterogeneity

DOI10.1287/OPRE.2019.1938MaRDI QIDQ5131463zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Saurabh Bansal, Genaro J. Gutiérrez

Publication date 8 November 2020

Published in Operations Research (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1287/opre.2019.1938

zbMATH Keywords

decision analysis: agribusiness research and development (R\&D)probability distributionrisk-return trade-off

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

General considerations in statistical decision theory (62C05) Inference from stochastic processes and prediction (62M20) Applications of statistics in engineering and industry; control charts (62P30)

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Cites work

• A quantile-based approach to system selection
• Better Estimation of PERT Activity Time Parameters
• Combining Probability Distributions from Dependent Information Sources
• Dynamic portfolio selection of NPD programs using marginal returns
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 794688 (Why is no real title available?)
• LEAST-SQUARES ESTIMATION OF LOCATION AND SCALE PARAMETERS USING ORDER STATISTICS
• Optimal prediction pools
• Product Portfolio Management with Production Flexibility in Agribusiness
• The composition of optimally wise crowds
• The robustness of mean and variance approximations in risk analysis
• Three-Point Approximations for Continuous Random Variables
• Using experts' noisy quantile judgments to quantify risks: theory and application to agribusiness

Cited in

(4)

• Development of the prediction graph method under incomplete and inaccurate expert estimates
• The group calibration index: a group-based approach for assessing forecasters' expertise when external outcome data are missing
• Using experts' noisy quantile judgments to quantify risks: theory and application to agribusiness
• Fifty years of decision analysis in operational research: a review

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