Inference for population dynamics in the Neolithic period

DOI10.1214/12-AOAS579MaRDI QIDQ1939990zbMATH OpenFDO

Authors Andrew W. Baggaley, Richard J. Boys, Andrew Golightly, Graeme R. Sarson, A. Shukurov

Publication date 5 March 2013

Published in The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/1301.1525, https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoas/1356629043

zbMATH Keywords

Markov chain Monte CarloBayesian inferenceGaussian process emulationNeolithic

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Inference from stochastic processes (62M99) Numerical analysis or methods applied to Markov chains (65C40) Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics (62P12)

Abstract: We consider parameter estimation for the spread of the Neolithic incipient farming across Europe using radiocarbon dates. We model the arrival time of farming at radiocarbon-dated, early Neolithic sites by a numerical solution to an advancing wavefront. We allow for (technical) uncertainty in the radiocarbon data, lack-of-fit of the deterministic model and use a Gaussian process to smooth spatial deviations from the model. Inference for the parameters in the wavefront model is complicated by the computational cost required to produce a single numerical solution. We therefore employ Gaussian process emulators for the arrival time of the advancing wavefront at each radiocarbon-dated site. We validate our model using predictive simulations.

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Cited in

(6)

• Inference for population dynamics in the Neolithic period
• Modeling abrupt cultural regime shifts during the Palaeolithic and Stone Age
• Accelerating pseudo-marginal MCMC using Gaussian processes
• Section on the special year for Mathematics of Planet Earth (MPE 2013)
• Efficient construction of Bayes optimal designs for stochastic process models
• A probabilistic approach to the assessment of some life history pattern parameteres in a Middle Pleistocene human population.

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