Two variants of the first Nåsell-Hirsch model (Q1824580)

In the transmission models of \textit{I. Nåsell} and \textit{W. M. Hirsch} [Commun. Pure Appl. Math. 25, 459-477 (1972; Zbl 0245.92018) and ibid. 26, 395-453 (1973; Zbl 0253.92004)], random quantities are replaced by their expectations in two places, in order to create a simpler ``hybrid'' model. In this paper, their earlier model \((NH_ 1)\) is compared with two other hybrid models, in which only one simplifying expectation is introduced. These models are analysed using the author's elegant martingale technique [16th Eur. Meet. Statisticians, Marburg/Ger. 1984, Suppl. Issues Stat. Decis. 2, 105-109 (1985; Zbl 0576.60081)], and insofar as they differ epidemiologically from \(NH_ 1\), they give less pessimistic conclusions. They also predict dependence between the numbers of intermediate and definitive hosts infected, as does the fully stochastic model of the reviewer [Math. Biosci. 38, 303-312 [1978; Zbl 0377.92013)].