Multi-patch and multi-group epidemic models: a new framework

DOI10.1007/S00285-017-1191-9zbMATH Open1392.92095arXiv1703.04554OpenAlexW3103368382WikidataQ46504536 ScholiaQ46504536MaRDI QIDQ1644589FDOQ1644589

Authors: Abderrahman Iggidr, Derdei Bichara 

Publication date: 21 June 2018

Published in: Journal of Mathematical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We develop a multi-patch and multi-group model that captures the dynamics of an infectious disease when the host is structured into an arbitrary number of groups and interacts into an arbitrary number of patches where the infection takes place. In this framework, we model host mobility that depends on its epidemiological status, by a Lagrangian approach. This framework is applied to a general SEIRS model and the basic reproduction number $mathcal{R}_0$ is derived. The effects of heterogeneity in groups, patches and mobility patterns on $mathcal{R}_0$ and disease prevalence are explored. Our results show that for a fixed number of groups, the basic reproduction number increases with respect to the number of patches and the host mobility patterns. Moreover, when the mobility matrix of susceptible individuals is of rank one, the basic reproduction number is explicitly determined and was found to be independent of the latter. The cases where mobility matrices are of rank one capture important modeling scenarios. Additionally, we study the global analysis of equilibria for some special cases. Numerical simulations are carried out to showcase the ramifications of mobility pattern matrices on disease prevalence and basic reproduction number.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1703.04554

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zbMATH Keywords

heterogeneityglobal stabilitymobilitymulti-groupresidence timesmulti-patch

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30) Population dynamics (general) (92D25) Global stability of solutions to ordinary differential equations (34D23)

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Cited In (27)

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