Combining experts' causal judgments

DOI10.1016/J.ARTINT.2020.103355MaRDI QIDQ2046003zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Dalal Alrajeh, Hana Chockler, Joseph Y. Halpern

Publication date 16 August 2021

Published in Artificial Intelligence (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.10180, https://kclpure.kcl.ac.uk/portal/en/publications/combining-experts-causal-judgments(4cfb5dc3-1bdb-4b42-ad18-b961bc0bcab9).html

zbMATH Keywords

causalitycombining causal judgmentscomplexityintervention

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

General topics in artificial intelligence (68T01)

Abstract: Consider a policymaker who wants to decide which intervention to perform in order to change a currently undesirable situation. The policymaker has at her disposal a team of experts, each with their own understanding of the causal dependencies between different factors contributing to the outcome. The policymaker has varying degrees of confidence in the experts' opinions. She wants to combine their opinions in order to decide on the most effective intervention. We formally define the notion of an effective intervention, and then consider how experts' causal judgments can be combined in order to determine the most effective intervention. We define a notion of two causal models being emph{compatible}, and show how compatible causal models can be merged. We then use it as the basis for combining experts' causal judgments. We also provide a definition of decomposition for causal models to cater for cases when models are incompatible. We illustrate our approach on a number of real-life examples.

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Cited in

(2)

• 10.1162/153244304773633834
• Logical perspectives on the foundations of probability

Describes a project that uses

Uses Software

• TETRAD

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