Combining experts' causal judgments

DOI10.1016/J.ARTINT.2020.103355zbMATH Open1504.68186arXiv2005.10180OpenAlexW3042485715MaRDI QIDQ2046003FDOQ2046003

Hana Chockler, Dalal Alrajeh, Joseph Y. Halpern

Publication date: 16 August 2021

Published in: Artificial Intelligence (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Consider a policymaker who wants to decide which intervention to perform in order to change a currently undesirable situation. The policymaker has at her disposal a team of experts, each with their own understanding of the causal dependencies between different factors contributing to the outcome. The policymaker has varying degrees of confidence in the experts' opinions. She wants to combine their opinions in order to decide on the most effective intervention. We formally define the notion of an effective intervention, and then consider how experts' causal judgments can be combined in order to determine the most effective intervention. We define a notion of two causal models being emph{compatible}, and show how compatible causal models can be merged. We then use it as the basis for combining experts' causal judgments. We also provide a definition of decomposition for causal models to cater for cases when models are incompatible. We illustrate our approach on a number of real-life examples.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.10180

zbMATH Keywords

causalitycomplexityinterventioncombining causal judgments

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

General topics in artificial intelligence (68T01)

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Cited In (1)

• Logical perspectives on the foundations of probability

Uses Software

• TETRAD

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