Modifying the network-based stochastic SEIR model to account for quarantine: an application to COVID-19

DOI10.1515/EM-2020-0030MaRDI QIDQ2059313zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Chris Groendyke, Adam Combs

Publication date 13 December 2021

Published in Epidemiologic Methods (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2008.01202

zbMATH Keywords

contact networkCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2stochastic SEIR epidemic

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Epidemiology (92D30)

Abstract: In this article, we present a modification to the network-based stochastic SEIR epidemic model which allows for modifications to the underlying contact network to account for the effects of quarantine. We also discuss the changes needed to the model to incorporate situations where some proportion of the individuals who are infected remain asymptomatic throughout the course of the disease. Using a generic network model where every potential contact exists with the same common probability, we conduct a simulation study in which we vary four key model parameters (transmission rate, probability of remaining asymptomatic, and the mean lengths of time spent in the Exposed and Infectious disease states) and examine the resulting impacts on various metrics of epidemic severity, including the effective reproduction number. We find that the mean length of time spent in the Infectious state and the transmission rate are the most important model parameters, while the mean length of time spent in the Exposed state and the probability of remaining asymptomatic are less important.

Recommendations

• Inferring key epidemiological parameters and transmission dynamics of COVID-19 based on a modified SEIR model
• A stochastic epidemic model of COVID-19 disease
• The effects of community interactions and quarantine on a complex network
• An edge-based model of SEIR epidemics on static random networks
• Accounting for the role of asymptomatic patients in understanding the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic: a case study from Singapore

Cites work

• A fractional order epidemic model for the simulation of outbreaks of influenza A(H1N1)
• A Network‐based Analysis of the 1861 Hagelloch Measles Data
• A SIMPLE STOCHASTIC EPIDEMIC
• An Exponential Family of Probability Distributions for Directed Graphs
• Bayesian inference for contact networks given epidemic data
• Bayesian Inference for Stochastic Epidemics in Populations with Random Social Structure
• Contact intervals, survival analysis of epidemic data, and estimation of \(R_{0}\)
• Contact network epidemiology: Bond percolation applied to infectious disease prediction and control
• Dynamical patterns of epidemic outbreaks in complex heterogeneous networks
• Global dynamics of an SEIR epidemic model with vertical transmission
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 3150484 (Why is no real title available?)
• Infinite subharmonic bifurcation in an SEIR epidemic model
• Integral equation models for endemic infectious diseases
• Limit theorems for a random graph epidemic model
• Logit models and logistic regressions for social networks. I: An introduction to Markov graphs and \(p^*\)
• Modeling infectious diseases in humans and animals
• Network theory and SARS: predicting outbreak diversity
• Random Graphs
• SIR dynamics in random networks with heterogeneous connectivity
• The dynamic nature of contact networks in infectious disease epidemiology
• Tracking epidemics with google flu trends data and a state-space SEIR model

Cited in

(2)

• Analysis and parametrical estimation with real COVID-19 data of a new extended SEIR epidemic model with quarantined individuals
• COVID-19 epidemic under the K-quarantine model: network approach

This page was built for publication: Modifying the network-based stochastic SEIR model to account for quarantine: an application to COVID-19

Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q2059313)