Analysing the causal effect of London cycle superhighways on traffic congestion

DOI10.1214/21-AOAS1450zbMATH Open1498.62304arXiv2003.08993OpenAlexW3012919524MaRDI QIDQ2078321FDOQ2078321

Authors: Prajamitra Bhuyan, Haojie Li, Daniel J. Graham, Emma J. McCoy 

Publication date: 28 February 2022

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Transport operators have a range of intervention options available to improve or enhance their networks. Such interventions are often made in the absence of sound evidence on resulting outcomes. Cycling superhighways were promoted as a sustainable and healthy travel mode, one of the aims of which was to reduce traffic congestion. Estimating the impacts that cycle superhighways have on congestion is complicated due to the non-random assignment of such intervention over the transport network. In this paper, we analyse the causal effect of cycle superhighways utilising pre-intervention and post-intervention information on traffic and road characteristics along with socio-economic factors. We propose a modeling framework based on the propensity score and outcome regression model. The method is also extended to the doubly robust set-up. Simulation results show the superiority of the performance of the proposed method over existing competitors. The method is applied to analyse a real dataset on the London transport network. The methodology proposed can assist in effective decision making to improve network performance.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.08993

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zbMATH Keywords

intelligent transportation systempotential outcomeaverage treatment effectconfounderdifference-in-difference

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Nonparametric estimation (62G05) Nonparametric robustness (62G35) Applications of statistics to economics (62P20)

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Uses Software

• DRDID

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