Inference for stochastic kinetic models from multiple data sources for joint estimation of infection dynamics from aggregate reports and virological data

DOI10.1214/21-AOAS1527zbMATH Open1498.62201arXiv1710.10346OpenAlexW2923759446MaRDI QIDQ2154191FDOQ2154191

Daniel E. Noyola, Yury E. García, Oksana A. Chkrebtii, Marcos A. Capistrán

Publication date: 14 July 2022

Published in: The Annals of Applied Statistics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Before the current pandemic, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) were the leading etiological agents of seasonal acute respiratory infections (ARI) around the world. In this setting, medical doctors typically based the diagnosis of ARI on patients' symptoms alone and did not routinely conduct virological tests necessary to identify individual viruses, limiting the ability to study the interaction between multiple pathogens and to make public health recommendations. We consider a stochastic kinetic model (SKM) for two interacting ARI pathogens circulating in a large population and an empirically-motivated background process for infections with other pathogens causing similar symptoms. An extended marginal sampling approach, based on the linear noise approximation to the SKM, integrates multiple data sources and additional model components. We infer the parameters defining the pathogens' dynamics and interaction within a Bayesian model and explore the posterior trajectories of infections for each illness based on aggregate infection reports from six epidemic seasons collected by the state health department and a subset of virological tests from a sentinel program at a general hospital in San Luis Potos'{i}, M'{e}xico. We interpret the results and make recommendations for future data collection strategies.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1710.10346

zbMATH Keywords

influenzaBayesian modelinglinear noise approximationstochastic kinetic modelsRSVacute respiratory disease

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Bayesian inference (62F15) Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Epidemiology (92D30)

Cites Work

• Bayesian forecasting and dynamic models.
• Bayesian inference for diffusion-driven mixed-effects models
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Title not available (Why is that?)
• Delayed acceptance particle MCMC for exact inference in stochastic kinetic models
• Tracking Epidemics With Google Flu Trends Data and a State-Space SEIR Model
• Inference for reaction networks using the linear noise approximation
• An Introduction to Stochastic Epidemic Models
• How direct competition shapes coexistence and vaccine effects in multi-strain pathogen systems
• Learning about physical parameters: the importance of model discrepancy
• The effect of cross-immunity and seasonal forcing in a multi-strain epidemic model
• Tracking the dynamics of pathogen interactions: modeling ecological and immune-mediated processes in a two-pathogen single-host system
• The influence of immune cross-reaction on phase structure in resonant solutions of a multi-strain seasonal SIR model
• Inference for discretely observed stochastic kinetic networks with applications to epidemic modeling
• Quantifying intrinsic and extrinsic noise in gene transcription using the linear noise approximation: an application to single cell data
• Scalable Bayesian Inference for Coupled Hidden Markov and Semi-Markov Models

This page was built for publication: Inference for stochastic kinetic models from multiple data sources for joint estimation of infection dynamics from aggregate reports and virological data

Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q2154191)