Spreading and vanishing in a West Nile virus model with expanding fronts

Nonlinear initial, boundary and initial-boundary value problems for linear parabolic equations (35K60) PDEs in connection with biology, chemistry and other natural sciences (35Q92) Free boundary problems for PDEs (35R35) Epidemiology (92D30)

Abstract: In this paper, we study a simplified version of a West Nile virus model discussed by Lewis et al. [28], which was considered as a first approximation for the spatial spread of WNv. The basic reproduction number

R_{0}

for the non-spatial epidemic model is defined and a threshold parameter

R_{0}^{D}

for the corresponding problem with null Dirichlet boundary condition is introduced. We consider a free boundary problem with coupled system, which describes the diffusion of birds by a PDE and the movement of mosquitoes by a ODE. The risk index

R_{0}^{F} (t)

associated with the disease in spatial setting is represented. Sufficient conditions for the WNv to eradicate or to spread are given. The asymptotic behavior of the solution to system when the spreading occurs are considered. It is shown that the initial number of infected populations, the diffusion rate of birds and the length of initial habitat exhibit important impacts on the vanishing or spreading of the virus. Numerical simulations are presented to illustrate the analytical results.

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