Statistics, causality and Bell's theorem

DOI10.1214/14-STS490zbMATH Open1331.81048arXiv1207.5103OpenAlexW3099819226WikidataQ124258344 ScholiaQ124258344MaRDI QIDQ252799FDOQ252799

Authors: Richard D. Gill 

Publication date: 4 March 2016

Published in: Statistical Science (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Bell's [Physics 1 (1964) 195-200] theorem is popularly supposed to establish the nonlocality of quantum physics. Violation of Bell's inequality in experiments such as that of Aspect, Dalibard and Roger [Phys. Rev. Lett. 49 (1982) 1804-1807] provides empirical proof of nonlocality in the real world. This paper reviews recent work on Bell's theorem, linking it to issues in causality as understood by statisticians. The paper starts with a proof of a strong, finite sample, version of Bell's inequality and thereby also of Bell's theorem, which states that quantum theory is incompatible with the conjunction of three formerly uncontroversial physical principles, here referred to as locality, realism and freedom. Locality is the principle that the direction of causality matches the direction of time, and that causal influences need time to propagate spatially. Realism and freedom are directly connected to statistical thinking on causality: they relate to counterfactual reasoning, and to randomisation, respectively. Experimental loopholes in state-of-the-art Bell type experiments are related to statistical issues of post-selection in observational studies, and the missing at random assumption. They can be avoided by properly matching the statistical analysis to the actual experimental design, instead of by making untestable assumptions of independence between observed and unobserved variables. Methodological and statistical issues in the design of quantum Randi challenges (QRC) are discussed. The paper argues that Bell's theorem (and its experimental confirmation) should lead us to relinquish not locality, but realism.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1207.5103

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zbMATH Keywords

Bell experimentBell inequalityBell test loopholeBell's theoremCHSH inequalitycounterfactualslocal hidden variablesnonlocalityquantum Randi challengeTsirelson inequality

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Foundations and philosophical topics in statistics (62A01) Applications of statistics to physics (62P35) Quantum measurement theory, state operations, state preparations (81P15) Quantum information, communication, networks (quantum-theoretic aspects) (81P45)

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Cited In (14)

• Upper bound on the sum of correlations of three indicators under the absence of a common factor
• The Bell experiment and the limitations of actors
• Margins of discrete Bayesian networks
• Graphs for margins of Bayesian networks
• A proof of Bell's inequality in quantum mechanics using causal interactions
• Stochastic Outcomes in Branching Space-Time: Analysis of Bell's Theorem
• Constraints on determinism: Bell versus Conway-Kochen
• Bell inequalities, counterfactual definiteness and falsifiability
• Bell inequalities, experimental protocols and contextuality
• Comment on ``A loophole of all `loophole-free' Bell-type theorems
• On the meaning of local realism
• On the role of joint probability distributions of incompatible observables in Bell and Kochen-Specker theorems
• A note on Bell's theorem logical consistency
• Randomness in post-selected events

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