Do `big losses' in judgmental adjustments to statistical forecasts affect experts' behaviour?

DOI10.1016/J.EJOR.2015.06.002MaRDI QIDQ321050zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Fotios Petropoulos, Robert Fildes, Paul Goodwin

Publication date 7 October 2016

Published in European Journal of Operational Research (Search for Journal in Brave)

Copyright license Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2015.06.002

zbMATH Keywords

forecastingdecision support systemsbehavioural analyticsjudgment

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Management decision making, including multiple objectives (90B50) Decision theory (91B06) Economic time series analysis (91B84) Bayesian problems; characterization of Bayes procedures (62C10) Applications of game theory (91A80) Experimental studies (91A90) Probabilistic games; gambling (91A60)

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Cites work

• A field study of sales forecasting accuracy and processes
• Advances in prospect theory: cumulative representation of uncertainty
• Decision support systems. An applied managerial approach.
• Do experts' adjustments on model-based SKU-level forecasts improve forecast quality?
• On the importance of behavioral operational research: the case of understanding and communicating about dynamic systems
• `Horses for courses' in demand forecasting

Cited in

(9)

• Forecast adjustments during post-promotional periods
• Effects of behavioral bias regarding demand forecasting in a competitive market
• Tactical sales forecasting using a very large set of macroeconomic indicators
• Do professional hockey teams with a two-goal lead lose more often than they should?
• Forecasting with jury-based probabilistic argumentation
• Editorial: Behavioural operational research: returning to the roots of the OR profession
• Supply chain forecasting: theory, practice, their gap and the future
• Evaluating human behaviour in response to AI recommendations for judgemental forecasting
• What causes post-decision disappointment? Estimating the contributions of systematic and selection biases

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