Dynamics of cancer recurrence

DOI10.1214/12-AAP876zbMATH Open1272.92023arXiv1307.5179MaRDI QIDQ363852FDOQ363852

Authors: Jasmine Foo, Kevin Leder 

Publication date: 5 September 2013

Published in: The Annals of Applied Probability (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Mutation-induced drug resistance in cancer often causes the failure of therapies and cancer recurrence, despite an initial tumor reduction. The timing of such cancer recurrence is governed by a balance between several factors such as initial tumor size, mutation rates and growth kinetics of drug-sensitive and resistance cells. To study this phenomenon we characterize the dynamics of escape from extinction of a subcritical branching process, where the establishment of a clone of escape mutants can lead to total population growth after the initial decline. We derive uniform in-time approximations for the paths of the escape process and its components, in the limit as the initial population size tends to infinity and the mutation rate tends to zero. In addition, two stochastic times important in cancer recurrence will be characterized: (i) the time at which the total population size first begins to rebound (i.e., become supercritical) during treatment, and (ii) the first time at which the resistant cell population begins to dominate the tumor.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1307.5179

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zbMATH Keywords

population geneticsbranching processes

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Medical applications (general) (92C50) Applications of branching processes (60J85)

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Cited In (12)

• Forward and backward evolutionary processes and allele frequency spectrum in a cancer cell population
• A quasi birth-and-death model for tumor recurrence
• Escape times for branching processes with random mutational fitness effects
• On analytical methods in neuroblastoma detection
• Mutation frequencies in a birth-death branching process
• Site frequency spectrum of a rescued population under rare resistant mutations
• Parameter estimation from single patient, single time-point sequencing data of recurrent tumors
• Waiting times in a branching process model of colorectal cancer initiation
• The Dynamic Model for Cancer Relapse Based on Two-Stage Model of Carcinogenesis
• Classification of cancer recurrence with alpha-beta BAM
• A comparison of mutation and amplification-driven resistance mechanisms and their impacts on tumor recurrence
• Large deviations of cancer recurrence timing

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