Self-Calibrating Priors Do Not Exist

DOI10.2307/2287891MaRDI QIDQ3696286zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors David Oakes

Publication date 1985

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.2307/2287891

zbMATH Keywords

coherenceforecastingprobability forecastingweathersubjectivismself-calibrating priors

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Foundations and philosophical topics in statistics (62A01) Bayesian problems; characterization of Bayes procedures (62C10)

Cited in

(27)

• Learning in Games
• Failure of calibration is typical
• Online calibrated forecasts: memory efficiency versus universality for learning in games
• Consistency and cautious fictitious play
• On Sequences with Non-learnable Subsequences
• On the truth-convergence of open-minded Bayesianism
• Belief-based equilibrium
• Smooth calibration, leaky forecasts, finite recall, and Nash dynamics
• Calibrated learning and correlated equilibrium
• On Calibration Error of Randomized Forecasting Algorithms
• Deterministic calibration and Nash equilibrium
• Calibration and refinement for classification trees
• “Calibeating”: Beating forecasters at their own game
• On calibration error of randomized forecasting algorithms
• On universal algorithms for adaptive forecasting
• Conditional universal consistency.
• Probability, causality and the empirical world: a Bayes-de Finetti-Popper-Borel synthesis
• Non-stochastic infinite and finite sequences
• Randomness is inherently imprecise
• An easier way to calibrate.
• Approachability, regret and calibration: implications and equivalences
• Stopping rules and the likelihood function
• On individual risk
• Testable implications of subjective expected utility theory
• Calibrated forecasting and merging
• Putnam's diagonal argument and the impossibility of a universal learning machine
• Non-asymptotic calibration and resolution

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