Naive traders and mispricing in prediction markets

DOI10.1016/J.JET.2012.05.020MaRDI QIDQ449182zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Ricardo Serrano-Padial

Publication date 12 September 2012

Published in Journal of Economic Theory (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2012.05.020

zbMATH Keywords

private informationfavorite-longshot biasdouble auctioncommon valuesnaive tradersprediction markets

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Auctions, bargaining, bidding and selling, and other market models (91B26)

Recommendations

• Prediction market prices under risk aversion and heterogeneous beliefs
• Memoirs of an indifferent trader: Estimating forecast distributions from prediction markets
• On prices and returns in commercial prediction markets
• It takes all sorts: a heterogeneous agent explanation for prediction market mispricing
• Prediction markets: alternative mechanisms for complex environments with few traders
• Equilibrium in prediction markets with buyers and sellers
• The wisdom of the crowd and prediction markets

Cites work

• Cursed Equilibrium
• Informed Speculation with Imperfect Competition
• On the aggregation of information in competitive markets
• Revisiting games of incomplete information with analogy-based expectations
• Toward a Strategic Foundation for Rational Expectations Equilibrium

Cited in

(13)

• Memoirs of an indifferent trader: Estimating forecast distributions from prediction markets
• Do Markets Favor Agents able to Make Accurate Predictions?
• Prediction market prices under risk aversion and heterogeneous beliefs
• Speculative overpricing in asset markets with information flows
• Price distortions under coarse reasoning with frequent trade
• The wisdom of the crowd and prediction markets
• It takes all sorts: a heterogeneous agent explanation for prediction market mispricing
• Bounded rationality, asymmetric information and mispricing in financial markets
• An experimental analysis of information acquisition in prediction markets
• m-Double Poisson Lévy markets
• On prices and returns in commercial prediction markets
• A jump model for fads in asset prices under asymmetric information
• Nonconvex equilibrium prices in prediction markets

This page was built for publication: Naive traders and mispricing in prediction markets

Report a bug (only for logged in users!)Click here to report a bug for this page (MaRDI item Q449182)