Crisis of the chaotic attractor of a climate model: a transfer operator approach

DOI10.1088/1361-6544/AAAF42zbMATH Open1406.37061arXiv1507.02228OpenAlexW2963199045WikidataQ129997779 ScholiaQ129997779MaRDI QIDQ4569304FDOQ4569304

Authors: Alexis Tantet, Valerio Lucarini, Frank Lunkeit, Henk Dijkstra 

Publication date: 28 June 2018

Published in: Nonlinearity (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: The destruction of a chaotic attractor leading to rough changes in the dynamics of a dynamical system is studied. Local bifurcations are characterised by a single or a pair of characteristic exponents crossing the imaginary axis. The approach of such bifurcations in the presence of noise can be inferred from the slowing down of the correlation decay. On the other hand, little is known about global bifurcations involving high-dimensional attractors with positive Lyapunov exponents. The global stability of chaotic attractors may be characterised by the spectral properties of the Koopman or the transfer operators governing the evolution of statistical ensembles. It has recently been shown that a boundary crisis in the Lorenz flow coincides with the approach to the unit circle of the eigenvalues of these operators associated with motions about the attractor, the stable resonances. A second type of resonances, the unstable resonances, is responsible for the decay of correlations and mixing on the attractor. In the deterministic case, those cannot be expected to be affected by general boundary crises. Here, however, we give an example of chaotic system in which slowing down of the decay of correlations of some observables does occur at the approach of a boundary crisis. The system considered is a high-dimensional, chaotic climate model of physical relevance. Moreover, coarse-grained approximations of the transfer operators on a reduced space, constructed from a long time series of the system, give evidence that this behaviour is due to the approach of unstable resonances to the unit circle. That the unstable resonances are affected by the crisis can be physically understood from the fact that the process responsible for the instability, the ice-albedo feedback, is also active on the attractor. Implications regarding response theory and the design of early-warning signals are discussed.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1507.02228

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zbMATH Keywords

resonancebifurcation theoryresponse theorytransfer operatorattractor crisis

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Strange attractors, chaotic dynamics of systems with hyperbolic behavior (37D45) Ergodic theorems, spectral theory, Markov operators (37A30) Functional analytic techniques in dynamical systems; zeta functions, (Ruelle-Frobenius) transfer operators, etc. (37C30) Nonuniformly hyperbolic systems (Lyapunov exponents, Pesin theory, etc.) (37D25) Dynamical systems in fluid mechanics, oceanography and meteorology (37N10) Dynamical aspects of attractors and their bifurcations (37G35) Meteorology and atmospheric physics (86A10)

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Cited In (22)

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• On the probability of finding nonphysical solutions through shadowing
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• Ruelle-Pollicott resonances of stochastic systems in reduced state space. Part III: Application to the Cane-Zebiak model of the El Niño-southern oscillation
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Uses Software

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