Extreme sensitivity and climate tipping points

DOI10.1007/S10955-019-02425-XzbMATH Open1446.37075arXiv1905.12070OpenAlexW2947641227WikidataQ113901101 ScholiaQ113901101MaRDI QIDQ781827FDOQ781827

Authors: Peter Ashwin, Anna von der Heydt 

Publication date: 20 July 2020

Published in: Journal of Statistical Physics (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: A climate state close to a tipping point will have a degenerate linear response to perturbations, which can be associated with extreme values of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this paper we contrast linearized (`instantaneous') with fully nonlinear geometric (`two-point') notions of ECS, in both presence and absence of tipping points. For a stochastic energy balance model of the global mean surface temperature with two stable regimes, we confirm that tipping events cause the appearance of extremes in both notions of ECS. Moreover, multiple regimes with different mean sensitivities are visible in the two-point ECS. We confirm some of our findings in a physics-based multi-box model of the climate system.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1905.12070

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zbMATH Keywords

tipping pointenergy balance modelclimate sensitivitystochastic climate model

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Climate science and climate modeling (86A08) Dynamical systems in fluid mechanics, oceanography and meteorology (37N10) Computational methods for bifurcation problems in dynamical systems (37M20) Computational methods for attractors of dynamical systems (37M22)

Cites Work

• Crisis of the chaotic attractor of a climate model: a transfer operator approach
• Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system
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• Revising and extending the linear response theory for statistical mechanical systems: evaluating observables as predictors and predictands
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• Sensitivity and resilience of the climate system: a conditional nonlinear optimization approach

Cited In (9)

• Efficient computation of linear response of chaotic attractors with one-dimensional unstable manifolds
• Metadynamics for Transition Paths in Irreversible Dynamics
• Potentially large equilibrium climate sensitivity tail uncertainty
• Using machine learning to predict statistical properties of non-stationary dynamical processes: System climate,regime transitions, and the effect of stochasticity
• Using GENIE to study a tipping point in the climate system
• Introduction to the special issue on the statistical mechanics of climate
• Sensitivity and resilience of the climate system: a conditional nonlinear optimization approach
• Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system
• Using machine learning to anticipate tipping points and extrapolate to post-tipping dynamics of non-stationary dynamical systems

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