Extreme sensitivity and climate tipping points
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Abstract: A climate state close to a tipping point will have a degenerate linear response to perturbations, which can be associated with extreme values of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). In this paper we contrast linearized (`instantaneous') with fully nonlinear geometric (`two-point') notions of ECS, in both presence and absence of tipping points. For a stochastic energy balance model of the global mean surface temperature with two stable regimes, we confirm that tipping events cause the appearance of extremes in both notions of ECS. Moreover, multiple regimes with different mean sensitivities are visible in the two-point ECS. We confirm some of our findings in a physics-based multi-box model of the climate system.
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Cites work
- Coalitions and catastrophic climate change
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- Parameter shifts for nonautonomous systems in low dimension: bifurcation- and rate-induced tipping
- Revising and extending the linear response theory for statistical mechanical systems: evaluating observables as predictors and predictands
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Cited in
(9)- Efficient computation of linear response of chaotic attractors with one-dimensional unstable manifolds
- Metadynamics for Transition Paths in Irreversible Dynamics
- Potentially large equilibrium climate sensitivity tail uncertainty
- Using machine learning to predict statistical properties of non-stationary dynamical processes: System climate,regime transitions, and the effect of stochasticity
- Using GENIE to study a tipping point in the climate system
- Introduction to the special issue on the statistical mechanics of climate
- Sensitivity and resilience of the climate system: a conditional nonlinear optimization approach
- Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system
- Using machine learning to anticipate tipping points and extrapolate to post-tipping dynamics of non-stationary dynamical systems
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