Universal asymptotic clone size distribution for general population growth
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Publication:505474
Abstract: Deterministically growing (wild-type) populations which seed stochastically developing mutant clones have found an expanding number of applications from microbial populations to cancer. The special case of exponential wild-type population growth, usually termed the Luria-Delbr"uck or Lea-Coulson model, is often assumed but seldom realistic. In this article we generalise this model to different types of wild-type population growth, with mutants evolving as a birth-death branching process. Our focus is on the size distribution of clones - that is the number of progeny of a founder mutant - which can be mapped to the total number of mutants. Exact expressions are derived for exponential, power-law and logistic population growth. Additionally for a large class of population growth we prove that the long time limit of the clone size distribution has a general two-parameter form, whose tail decays as a power-law. Considering metastases in cancer as the mutant clones, upon analysing a data-set of their size distribution, we indeed find that a power-law tail is more likely than an exponential one.
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Cited in
(8)- Mutation frequencies in a birth-death branching process
- The fractional birth process with power-law immigration
- Clone size distributions in networks of genetic similarity
- Heavy-tailed distributions in branching process models of secondary cancerous tumors
- Mutant number distribution in an exponentially growing population
- Some Poisson-based processes at geometric times
- Immortal branching processes
- A generalized Luria-Delbrück model
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