A Dutch book against sleeping beauties who are evidential decision theorists

DOI10.1007/S11229-015-0691-7zbMATH Open1357.03015arXiv1705.03560OpenAlexW3098444775MaRDI QIDQ514611FDOQ514611

Authors: Vincent Conitzer 

Publication date: 9 March 2017

Published in: Synthese (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: In the context of the Sleeping Beauty problem, it has been argued that so-called "halfers" can avoid Dutch book arguments by adopting evidential decision theory. I introduce a Dutch book for a variant of the Sleeping Beauty problem and argue that evidential decision theorists fall prey to it, whether they are halfers or thirders. The argument crucially requires that an action can provide evidence for what the agent would do not only at other decision points where she has exactly the same information, but also at decision points where she has different but "symmetric" information.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.03560

Recommendations

• Dutch book arguments and imprecise probabilities
• Dutch book against some `objective' priors
• On the expected utility objection to the Dutch book argument for probabilism
• The insufficiency of the Dutch Book argument
• Dutch Books Arguments and Learning in a Nonexpected Utility Framework
• Hidden assumptions in the Dutch Book argument
• Objectifying subjective probabilities: Dutch book arguments for principles of direct inference
• The vulnerability of the transferable belief model to Dutch books

zbMATH Keywords

Dutch booksevidential decision theorysleeping beauty problemself-locating beliefs

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Decision theory (91B06) Philosophical and critical aspects of logic and foundations (03A05) Logics of knowledge and belief (including belief change) (03B42)

Cites Work

• Diachronic Dutch books and Sleeping Beauty
• Sleeping Beauty and self-location: a hybrid model
• Belief update across fission
• Lost memories and useless coins: revisiting the absentminded driver

Cited In (9)

• The vulnerability of the transferable belief model to Dutch books
• Hidden assumptions in the Dutch Book argument
• Sleeping Beauty, evidential support and indexical knowledge: reply to Horgan
• Dutch book against some `objective' priors
• Diachronic Dutch books and Sleeping Beauty
• The Sleeping Beauty controversy
• A Dutch book for CDT thirders
• Bayesian beauty
• Can rational choice guide us to correct \textit{de se} beliefs?

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