Time reversal of spinal processes for linear and non-linear branching processes near stationarity

DOI10.1214/23-EJP911zbMATH Open1519.92195arXiv2201.05223MaRDI QIDQ6165220FDOQ6165220

Authors: Benoit Henry, Sylvie Méléard, Viet Chi Tran 

Publication date: 4 July 2023

Published in: Electronic Journal of Probability (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We consider a stochastic individual-based population model with competition, trait-structure affecting reproduction and survival, and changing environment. The changes of traits are described by jump processes, and the dynamics can be approximated in large population by a non-linear PDE with a non-local mutation operator. Using the fact that this PDE admits a non-trivial stationary solution, we can approximate the non-linear stochastic population process by a linear birth-death process where the interactions are frozen, as long as the population remains close to this equilibrium. This allows us to derive, when the population is large, the equation satisfied by the ancestral lineage of an individual uniformly sampled at a fixed time $T$, which is the path constituted of the traits of the ancestors of this individual in past times $tleqT$. This process is a time inhomogeneous Markov process, but we show that the time reversal of this process possesses a very simple structure (e.g. time-homogeneous and independent of $T$). This extends recent results where the authors studied a similar model with a Laplacian operator but where the methods essentially relied on the Gaussian nature of the mutations.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.05223

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zbMATH Keywords

birth-death processesphylogenycompetitiongenealogyinteractionjump processmany-to-one formulaancestral pathstochastic individual-based modelsnon-local mutation operator

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Problems related to evolution (92D15) Applications of branching processes (60J85) Interacting random processes; statistical mechanics type models; percolation theory (60K35) Population dynamics (general) (92D25) PDEs in connection with biology, chemistry and other natural sciences (35Q92)

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Cited In (4)

• Evolving genealogies for branching populations under selection and competition
• Time reversal of some stationary jump diffusion processes from population genetics
• Harris's method for non-conservative periodic semiflows and application to some non-local PDEs
• Spinal constructions for continuous type-space branching processes with interactions

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