How to avoid uncompetitive games? The importance of tie-breaking rules

DOI10.1016/J.EJOR.2022.11.015arXiv2201.12241MaRDI QIDQ6167375FDOQ6167375

Authors: László Csató 

Publication date: 10 July 2023

Published in: European Journal of Operational Research (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: If the final position of a team is already secured independently of the outcomes of the remaining games in a round-robin tournament, it might play with little enthusiasm. This is detrimental to attendance and can inspire collusion and match-fixing. We demonstrate that tie-breaking rules might affect the occurrence of such a situation. Its probability is quantified via simulations for the four groups of the 2022/23 UEFA Nations League A under two well-established tie-breaking rules, goal difference and head-to-head records. In these home-away round-robin contests with four teams and 12 matches, the competitiveness of the final four games can be promoted by giving priority to goal difference, which reduces the chance of a fixed position in the group ranking by at least two and usually five percentage points in the last round. Our findings, supported by sensitivity analysis in a theoretical model, provide important lessons on how to design ranking systems.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2201.12241

zbMATH Keywords

simulationOR in sportsfootballtournament designranking rules

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Statistical ranking and selection procedures (62F07) Case-oriented studies in operations research (90B90) Mathematical modeling or simulation for problems pertaining to operations research and mathematical programming (90-10)

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Cited In (2)

• When is tit-for-tat unbeatable?
• Tournament schedules and incentives in a double round‐robin tournament with four teams

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