SPADE4: sparsity and delay embedding based forecasting of epidemics

DOI10.1007/S11538-023-01174-ZzbMATH Open1519.92301arXiv2211.08277OpenAlexW4381190033MaRDI QIDQ6168035FDOQ6168035

Authors: Esha Saha, Lam Si Tung Ho, Giang Tran 

Publication date: 8 August 2023

Published in: Bulletin of Mathematical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: Predicting the evolution of diseases is challenging, especially when the data availability is scarce and incomplete. The most popular tools for modelling and predicting infectious disease epidemics are compartmental models. They stratify the population into compartments according to health status and model the dynamics of these compartments using dynamical systems. However, these predefined systems may not capture the true dynamics of the epidemic due to the complexity of the disease transmission and human interactions. In order to overcome this drawback, we propose Sparsity and Delay Embedding based Forecasting (SPADE4) for predicting epidemics. SPADE4 predicts the future trajectory of an observable variable without the knowledge of the other variables or the underlying system. We use random features model with sparse regression to handle the data scarcity issue and employ Takens' delay embedding theorem to capture the nature of the underlying system from the observed variable. We show that our approach outperforms compartmental models when applied to both simulated and real data.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/2211.08277

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zbMATH Keywords

sparse regressioninfectious diseasesdelay embeddingrandom feature models

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis (62P10) Epidemiology (92D30)

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Cited In (1)

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