The Improvement of Probability Judgements

DOI10.2307/2981425MaRDI QIDQ3938333zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Dennis Lindley

Publication date 1982

Published in Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General) (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.2307/2981425

zbMATH Keywords

calibrationlog-oddspredictive distributionsscoring rules

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Foundations and philosophical topics in statistics (62A01)

Cited in

(14)

• Group decision analysis and its application to combining opinions
• Subjective estimation of the delay time distribution in maintenance modelling
• Risk analysis of catastrophes using experts' judgements: An empirical study on risk analysis of major civil aircraft accidents in Europe
• Coherent combination of experts' opinions. (With discussion)
• Calibrating expert assessments using hierarchical Gaussian process models
• Economic Darwinism: Who has the best probabilities?
• The value of a probability forecast from portfolio theory
• Some aspects of probability forecasting
• Extremizing and Antiextremizing in Bayesian Ensembles of Binary-Event Forecasts
• Aggregating expert judgement
• Methods for Eliciting Informative Prior Distributions: A Critical Review
• SUPPORT FOR GEOMETRIC POOLING
• Expert deference as a belief revision schema
• Fiducial inference in combining expert judgements

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