Calibrating expert assessments using hierarchical Gaussian process models

DOI10.1214/19-BA1180MaRDI QIDQ2057359zbMATH OpenWikidataFDO

Authors Tommi Perälä, Anna Chrysafi, Jarno Vanhatalo

Publication date 6 December 2021

Published in Bayesian Analysis (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ba/1573117289

zbMATH Keywords

bias correctionenvironmental managementexpert elicitationfisheries scienceGaussian processsupra Bayes

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Gaussian processes (60G15) Bayesian inference (62F15) Applications of statistics to environmental and related topics (62P12)

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Cites work

• A survey of Bayesian predictive methods for model assessment, selection and comparison
• Bayesian calibration of computer models. (With discussion)
• Bayesian data analysis.
• Combining expert opinions in prior elicitation
• Decision Analysis Expert Use
• Elicitation. The science and art of structuring judgement
• Gaussian processes for machine learning.
• Marginalization and Linear Opinion Pools
• Modeling expert judgements for Bayesian updating
• Modeling Expert Opinion Arising as a Partial Probabilistic Specification
• On the Reconciliation of Probability Assessments
• Probabilistic Forecasts, Calibration and Sharpness
• Probabilistic opinion pooling generalized. I: General agendas
• Reconciliation of Probability Distributions
• Reliability (and Fault Tree) Analysis Using Expert Opinions
• Statistical Methods for Eliciting Probability Distributions
• The Improvement of Probability Judgements
• The no-U-turn sampler: adaptively setting path lengths in Hamiltonian Monte Carlo
• Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities
• Updating of Belief in the Light of Someone Else's Opinion

Cited in

(3)

• A Bayesian method for calibration and aggregation of expert judgement
• Methods for Eliciting Informative Prior Distributions: A Critical Review
• Reconciliation of expert priors for quantities and events and application within the probabilistic Delphi method

Describes a project that uses

Uses Software

• Stan
• NUTS
• BayesDA

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