A Bayesian method for calibration and aggregation of expert judgement

DOI10.1016/J.IJAR.2020.12.007MaRDI QIDQ2237128zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors Yanyan Li

Publication date 27 October 2021

Published in International Journal of Approximate Reasoning (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL http://wrap.warwick.ac.uk/145739/1/WRAP-Bayesian-method-calibration-aggregation-expert-judgement-Hartley-2020.pdf

zbMATH Keywords

Bayesian hierarchical modelcalibrationhomogeneity groupsrisk assessmentstructured expert judgement

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Random measures (60G57) Bayesian inference (62F15) Classification and discrimination; cluster analysis (statistical aspects) (62H30) Decision theory (91B06)

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Cites work

• A ranking model in uncertain, imprecise and multi-experts contexts: the application of evidence theory
• Aggregating expert judgement
• Bayesian decision analysis. Principles and practice.
• Bayesian modelling of dependence between experts: some comparisons with Cooke's classical model
• Combining Expert Judgments: A Bayesian Approach
• Combining expert opinions in prior elicitation
• Combining probability distributions: A critique and an annotated bibliography
• Decision Analysis Expert Use
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 4098489 (Why is no real title available?)
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 774881 (Why is no real title available?)
• Nonparametric elicitation for heavy-tailed prior distributions
• Probabilistic Forecasts, Calibration and Sharpness
• Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk
• Reconciliation of Probability Distributions
• Statistical Methods for Eliciting Probability Distributions
• Two further applications of a model for binary regression
• Updating of Belief in the Light of Someone Else's Opinion

Cited in

(10)

• Calibrating expert assessments using hierarchical Gaussian process models
• Bayesian modelling of dependence between experts: some comparisons with Cooke's classical model
• Using the classical model for source attribution of pathogen-caused illnesses. Lessons from conducting an ample structured expert judgment study
• Smooth aggregation of Bayesian experts
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 5864689 (Why is no real title available?)
• scientific article; zbMATH DE number 5525981 (Why is no real title available?)
• Investigation of the aggregation effectiveness of expert estimates obtained by the pairwise comparison method
• Research on the optimal aggregation method of judgment matrices based on spatial Steiner-Weber point
• Optimized geometric pooling of probabilities for information fusion and forgetting
• Reconciliation of expert priors for quantities and events and application within the probabilistic Delphi method

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