Asymptotic independence for random permutations from surface groups
The paper under review studies statistical properties of random permutations associated with homomorphisms from a surface group \(\Gamma = \pi_1(X,o)\), where \(X\) is a closed orientable hyperbolic surface of genus \(g \geq 2\), into the symmetric group \(S_n\). Such homomorphisms parametrize labeled \(n\)-sheeted covers of \(X\), yielding a natural probability space when endowed with the uniform distribution on \(\operatorname{Hom}(\Gamma, S_n)\).\N\NFor \(\gamma \in \Gamma\), the author investigates the random variable \(F_n(\gamma)\), the number of fixed points of \(\varphi(\gamma)\) for \(\varphi\) drawn uniformly at random from \(\operatorname{Hom}(\Gamma, S_n)\). Generalizing previous results by \textit{M. Magee} and \textit{D. Puder} [Geom. Dedicata 216, No. 4, Paper No. 46, 25 p. (2022; Zbl 1514.20157); Forum Math. Pi 11, Paper No. e15, 51 p. (2023; Zbl 1521.20016)], see also [\textit{D. Puder} and \textit{T. Zimhoni}, Int. Math. Res. Not. 2024, No. 5, 4242--4300 (2024; Zbl 1550.20097)], the main result shows that, under a natural disjointness condition on conjugacy classes, products of such variables are asymptotically independent as \(n \to \infty\). Specifically, the author proves that for distinct primitive conjugacy classes \([\gamma_i]\) in \(\Gamma\) and suitable powers, the mixed moments of the associated fixed point statistics factor asymptotically.\N\NA key technical tool is a decomposition of the relevant expectation into a sum over injective lifts of certain finite subcomplexes (``subcovers) of the surface, combined with asymptotic expansions for their expected embedding counts. The central argument relies on a classification of the Euler characteristic zero subgroups of \(\Gamma\) and their labeling via the \(CW\)-complex structure on \(X\).\N\NThe asymptotic independence is further refined into convergence in distribution to products of linear combinations of independent Poisson random variables. This strengthens earlier results, allowing arbitrary products of \(F_n(\gamma^k)\) for distinct non-inverse primitive conjugacy classes.
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