Haldane's formula in Cannings models: the case of moderately weak selection

DOI10.1214/20-EJP572zbMATH Open1469.60226arXiv1907.10049OpenAlexW3120934632MaRDI QIDQ2042825FDOQ2042825

Authors: Florin Boenkost, Adrián González Casanova, Cornelia Pokalyuk, Anton Wakolbinger 

Publication date: 21 July 2021

Published in: Electronic Journal of Probability (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We introduce a Cannings model with directional selection via a paintbox construction and establish a strong duality with the line counting process of a new emph{Cannings ancestral selection graph} in discrete time. This duality also yields a formula for the fixation probability of the beneficial type. Haldane's formula states that for a single selectively advantageous individual in a population of haploid individuals of size $N$ the prob-ability of fixation is asymptotically (as $Noinfty$) equal to the selective advantage of haploids $s_N$ divided by half of the offspring variance. For a class of offspring distributions within Kingman attraction we prove this asymptotics for sequences $s_N$ obeying $N^{-1}ll{s}_{N}ll{N}^{-1/2}$, which is a regime of "moderately weak selection". It turns out that for $s_{N}ll{N}^{-2/3}$ the Cannings ancestral selection graph is so close to the ancestral selection graph of a Moran model that a suitable coupling argument allows to play the problem back asymptotically to the fixation probability in the Moran model, which can be computed explicitly.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1907.10049

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zbMATH Keywords

ancestral selection graphCannings modeldirectional selectionprobability of fixationsampling duality

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Central limit and other weak theorems (60F05) Markov chains (discrete-time Markov processes on discrete state spaces) (60J10) Population dynamics (general) (92D25) Branching processes (Galton-Watson, birth-and-death, etc.) (60J80)

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Cited In (8)

• Extinction scenarios in evolutionary processes: a multinomial Wright-Fisher approach
• Lines of descent in a Moran model with frequency-dependent selection and mutation
• \(\Lambda\)-coalescents arising in a population with dormancy
• Extinction threshold and large population limit of a plant metapopulation model with recurrent extinction events and a seed bank component
• Haldane's formula in Cannings models: the case of moderately strong selection
• On the fixation probability of an advantageous allele in a population with skewed offspring distribution
• Probability of fixation under weak selection: a branching process unifying approach
• Asymptotic genealogies for a class of generalized Wright-Fisher models

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