Extinction scenarios in evolutionary processes: a multinomial Wright-Fisher approach

DOI10.1007/S00285-023-01993-7zbMATH Open1522.92041arXiv1911.11874MaRDI QIDQ6056540FDOQ6056540

Authors:

Publication date: 2 October 2023

Published in: Journal of Mathematical Biology (Search for Journal in Brave)

Abstract: We study a generalized discrete-time multi-type Wright-Fisher population process. The mean-field dynamics of the stochastic process is induced by a general replicator difference equation. We prove several results regarding the asymptotic behavior of the model, focusing on the impact of the mean-field dynamics on it. One of the results is a limit theorem that describes sufficient conditions for an almost certain path to extinction, first eliminating the type which is the least fit at the mean-field equilibrium. The effect is explained by the metastability of the stochastic system, which under the conditions of the theorem spends almost all time before the extinction event in a neighborhood of the equilibrium. In addition, to limit theorems, we propose a variation of Fisher's maximization principle, fundamental theorem of natural selection, for a completely general deterministic replicator dynamics and study implications of the deterministic maximization principle for the stochastic model.

Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.11874

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zbMATH Keywords

evolutionary dynamicsfitness landscapeLyapunov functionsmetastabilityWright-Fisher processquasi-equilibria

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Problems related to evolution (92D15) Dynamical systems in biology (37N25) Markov chains (discrete-time Markov processes on discrete state spaces) (60J10) Population dynamics (general) (92D25) Evolutionary games (91A22)

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Cited In (2)

• Extinction in a branching process: why some of the fittest strategies cannot guarantee survival
• Impact of demography on extinction/fixation events

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