Maximum Entropy Aggregation of Expert Predictions

DOI10.1287/MNSC.42.10.1420MaRDI QIDQ4363605zbMATH OpenOpenAlexFDO

Authors In Jae Myung, Sridhar Ramamoorti, Andrew D. Bailey

Publication date 12 November 1997

Published in Management Science (Search for Journal in Brave)

Full work available at URL https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.42.10.1420

zbMATH Keywords

consensusinformation theoryaggregation rulesaggregation of expert opinionsmaximum entropy frameworkprediction of the outcome of an uncertain event

Mathematics Subject Classification ID

Management decision making, including multiple objectives (90B50) Decision theory (91B06)

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Cited in

(10)

• An analytic method for evaluating the performance of aggregation rules for probability densities
• Partial information framework: model-based aggregation of estimates from diverse information sources
• A foundational approach to generalising the maximum entropy inference process to the multi-agent context
• Inferring probability densities from expert opinion
• Can coherent predictions be contradictory?
• Aggregating expert predictions in a networked environment.
• A maximum likelihood approach to combining forecasts
• Learning optimal forecast aggregation in partial evidence environments
• Optimal probability aggregation based on generalized Brier scoring
• Bayesian inference for the weights in logarithmic pooling

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