Early-warning indicators for rate-induced tipping
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Publication:4606924
DOI10.1063/1.4963012zbMATH Open1382.37052arXiv1509.01696OpenAlexW3103048005WikidataQ50560512 ScholiaQ50560512MaRDI QIDQ4606924FDOQ4606924
Authors: Paul Ritchie, Jan Sieber 
Publication date: 9 March 2018
Published in: Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science (Search for Journal in Brave)
Abstract: A dynamical system is said to undergo rate-induced tipping when it fails to track its quasi-equilibrium state due to an above-critical-rate change of system parameters. We study a prototypical model for rate-induced tipping, the saddle-node normal form subject to time-varying equilibrium drift and noise. We find that both most commonly used early-warning indicators, increase in variance and increase in autocorrelation, occur not when the equilibrium drift is fastest but with a delay. We explain this delay by demonstrating that the most likely trajectory for tipping also crosses the tipping threshold with a delay and therefore the tipping itself is delayed. We find solutions of the variational problem determining the most likely tipping path using numerical continuation techniques. The result is a systematic study of the most likely tipping time in the plane of two parameters, distance from tipping threshold and noise intensity.
Full work available at URL: https://arxiv.org/abs/1509.01696
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Cited In (23)
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- Compactification for asymptotically autonomous dynamical systems: theory, applications and invariant manifolds
- Basin bifurcations, oscillatory instability and rate-induced thresholds for Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a global oceanic box model
- Inverse-square law between time and amplitude for crossing tipping thresholds
- Rethinking the definition of rate-induced tipping
- Rate-Induced Tipping in Heterogeneous Reaction-Diffusion Systems: An Invariant Manifold Framework and Geographically Shifting Ecosystems
- Rate-induced tipping: thresholds, edge states and connecting orbits
- Enhancing noise-induced switching times in systems with distributed delays
- Estimating rate-induced tipping via asymptotic series and a Melnikov-like method
- Tipping phenomena and points of no return in ecosystems: beyond classical bifurcations
- Tipping in a low-dimensional model of a tropical cyclone
- Overview of the advances in understanding chaos in low-dimensional dynamical systems subjected to parameter drift. Parallel dynamical evolutions and ``climate change in simple systems
- Internal noise interference to warnings of tipping points in generic multidimensional dynamical systems
- Bifurcation dodge: avoidance of a thermoacoustic instability under transient operation
- On conditions for rate-induced tipping in multi-dimensional dynamical systems
- Early warning of noise-induced catastrophic high-amplitude oscillations in an airfoil model
- Analysis and predictability of tipping points with leading-order nonlinear term
- Rate-induced tipping in discrete-time dynamical systems
- Early-warning signals for bifurcations in random dynamical systems with bounded noise
- Noise-induced tipping under periodic forcing: Preferred tipping phase in a non-adiabatic forcing regime
- Critical transitions in piecewise uniformly continuous concave quadratic ordinary differential equations
- Rate-induced tipping from periodic attractors: partial tipping and connecting orbits
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