Random maximal isotropic subspaces and Selmer groups
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Elliptic curves over global fields (11G05) Abelian varieties of dimension (> 1) (11G10) [https://duckduckgo.com/?q=MSC%2011G30%20%22Curves+of+arbitrary+genus+or+genus+%28%0D%0Ae+1%29+over+global+fields%22 Curves of arbitrary genus or genus ( e 1) over global fields (11G30)] Global ground fields in algebraic geometry (14G25) Arithmetic ground fields for abelian varieties (14K15)
Abstract: Under suitable hypotheses, we construct a probability measure on the set of closed maximal isotropic subspaces of a locally compact quadratic space over F_p. A random subspace chosen with respect to this measure is discrete with probability 1, and the dimension of its intersection with a fixed compact open maximal isotropic subspace is a certain nonnegative-integer-valued random variable. We then prove that the p-Selmer group of an elliptic curve is naturally the intersection of a discrete maximal isotropic subspace with a compact open maximal isotropic subspace in a locally compact quadratic space over F_p. By modeling the first subspace as being random, we can explain the known phenomena regarding distribution of Selmer ranks, such as the theorems of Heath-Brown, Swinnerton-Dyer, and Kane for 2-Selmer groups in certain families of quadratic twists, and the average size of 2- and 3-Selmer groups as computed by Bhargava and Shankar. Our model is compatible with Delaunay's heuristics for p-torsion in Shafarevich-Tate groups, and predicts that the average rank of elliptic curves over a fixed number field is at most 1/2. Many of our results generalize to abelian varieties over global fields.
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